增长为基础的激励,不是关税将加强美国芯片制造和领导力

周四,2020年7月2日,下午3:30

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在2018年,美国实行之后的301调查中国的不公平贸易做法对美国进口半导体和其他货物从中国有25%的关税。Since 60% of U.S. semiconductor imports from China are originally made in the U.S., distributed through global supply chains, and imported by U.S. companies for themselves, U.S. chipmakers have borne the brunt of the $750 million in duties paid on chip imports since July 2018. Some policymakers believe that imposing even more tariffs on semiconductors and other goods will “reshore” chip production to the U.S. While tariffs arguably helped bring China to the negotiating table for a broader trade deal, tariffs on semiconductors fail to incentivize domestic chip production and will only serve to further erode America’s manufacturing base and technological leadership (see SIA one-pager这里)。

不同于技术制造业的许多其他部分,美国半导体的显著部分已经设计和美国制造。美国半导体制造公司都保持在美国其前端制造容量的大约44%,从而导致制造作业的稳定的基础上,其相对于其它扇区是一个令人印象深刻技艺。后已完成晶片在美国制造的,大多数公司把它们运国外组装的最后阶段,封装和测试(也称为ATP)。这种低价值的ATP(约一小块的值的10%)发生在第三国几十年来,美国允许芯片制造商把重点放在先进,高附加值的设计和制造。Imposing duties on chip imports causes U.S. semiconductor makers to pay tariffs on their own goods, diminishing their competitiveness by reducing available capital to invest in R&D, and raising the costs of their products at a time when China is champing at the bit to assume a leadership role in semiconductor technology, especially with regard to chip manufacturing. Moreover, while nearly half of U.S. firms’ manufacturing capacity is here in the U.S., 82% of their sales are to customers overseas, making semiconductors our 5最大的出口。If the U.S. imposes WTO-illegal tariffs on chip imports from other countries, U.S. companies will face WTO-sanctioned reciprocal retaliatory tariffs in these important overseas markets, which will negatively impact the sales that support manufacturing jobs here in the U.S and undermine our $8 billion global semiconductor trade surplus.

但这只是故事的一半的。在半导体关税也威胁要赶走美国制造的先进技术领域依赖于半导体技术,包括像人工智能,航天航空,下一代网络,自主车和机器人技术的未来必须要赢的技术。If the cost of key inputs such as semiconductors is too high, tech manufacturers will be forced to contemplate relocating out of the U.S. and investing in more business-friendly countries to maintain their competitiveness vis a vis China and other nations who have not imposed similar tariffs. This would be a devastating blow to the U.S. advanced manufacturing sector, costing jobs and further eroding U.S. manufacturing and technological competitiveness. The record drop in new foreign investments in the U.S. manufacturing sector from $202.5 billion in 2018 to $78.2 billion in 2019, following the implementation of Section 301 tariffs in 2018, underscores this point (来源:经济分析局)。

拆开这个远一点,了解半导体制造业经济是很重要的。今天,建设一个半导体晶圆厂并不便宜。一个国家的最先进的晶圆厂(即逻辑代工)花费$ 18-27十亿建设和运营,并取决于全球供应商成千上万的重点投入,包括设备和材料。美国半导体公司已经投入显著的时间和资源来发展自己的业务和供应链内外美国。高关税不会迫使企业放弃这些固定成本的资产和已启用在这个竞争激烈,R&d密集型和高消耗行业的美国全球领导地位高效的供应链。

美国政策制yabo体育app官方下载定者的权利,优先提供给美国经济行业的重要性,国内晶圆厂建设,技术领先,和国家安全。之所以许多国家都超过了美国半导体制造产能的增长,然而,是因为这些国家的政府提供的主要金融鼓励措施,吸引晶圆厂。例如,像中国,台湾,新加坡,日本,韩国,爱尔兰,以色列,德国和法国等国家已经提供数百亿美元的直接赠款制造,税收抵免,股权投资,低于市场贷款,免费或补贴土地,补贴设备,基础设施建设,劳动力培训等。虽然2017年的税制改革是一个可喜的进步,美国根本没有在联邦一级可比制造的激励机制。

对于美国的政策制定者吸引半导体制造最有效的方法是不是关税,而是像yabo体育app官方下载联邦拨款,R&d经费财政奖励和税收优惠,以建立晶圆厂和研究机构的设想被提出CHIPS对美国法案美国铸造法The total cost of these proposed bills to the American taxpayer would be roughly $30 billion (without tax credits), which is significantly less than the $93-185 billion price tag of 25%-50% tariffs on U.S. semiconductor imports over the next 10 years. Putting policies in place to incentivize domestic fab construction that are competitive with those offered abroad by other governments should be a priority for U.S. policymakers and build on past successes with DARPA and Sematech, which helped make the U.S. industry into the semiconductor powerhouse and world leader it is.